According to Merriam-Webster, to forecast is to “to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.”
To forecast the weather is “to predict weather conditions based on correlated meteorological observations.”
I don’t have much against weather forecasting. I remember hearing a story from a lady who lived in Westerly, RI. A massive hurricane showed up one day — nobody knew it was coming. Things are bad enough with a hurricane, but imagine if one showed up unannounced in this day and age? Of course, one could argue that tornadoes do appear unannounced. However, I am not trying to belittle weather forecasting as a whole.
But, as an example, I look at today’s weather forecast on my phone. For today, there is an alert that an inch of rain is expected to fall. I look out the window, and it’s a crappy looking day, gray and wet. It is also raining at the moment, so it is conceivable that we will receive an inch of rain – or at least a significant amount of rain – today.
Here is where I have a problem. According to the extended forecast, on November 30, the high temperature is expected to be 44 degrees Fahrenheit, with a 25% chance of rain and an 8% chance of snow. The wind will blow at 4mph from the ENE, and the sky will be 97% covered with clouds.
Really?
We as a species are suffering from TMI. All these stats and predictions and numbers and betting odds and whatever else are thrown at us every day. Perhaps for these long-range forecasts, they could simply state the predicted trends, rather than presenting the data.
I will review the forecast on November 29 to see how closely it aligns with the data presented today. It should be interesting.
Peace.
Kevin